October 9, 2025
Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi says the U.S. is nearing recession as consumer spending slows, inflation persists, and industrial output weakens. He warns Washington’s budget chaos could accelerate the downturn. A government shutdown or policy misstep may be all it takes to push the economy over the edge.
The delinquency rate for office CMBS loans has surged to 11.7%, surpassing the peak seen during the 2008 financial crisis. Analysts warn this is not isolated—multifamily and retail loans are showing strain too. The crisis brewing in commercial real estate may soon ripple across the broader economy and threaten bank stability.
BRICS nations are now using non-dollar payments for over 50% of trade, and they’re not slowing down. China and Russia are hoarding gold and promoting alternative currencies. J.P. Morgan notes that dollar dominance is fading fast—a shift that could undermine American purchasing power and savings.
As geopolitical risk rises, central banks are racing to buy physical gold—sending prices to all-time highs. Some refiners report tightening supplies, while premiums increase. Investors who wait may soon find physical gold harder to get—or priced far out of reach.
From commercial real estate to tech to treasuries, multiple asset classes are flashing red. The Mortgage Bankers Association reports widespread delinquencies. Meanwhile, multiple banks hit record highs—raising concerns this isn’t an AI boom, but a dangerous speculative bubble. If it pops, the fallout could rival 2008.
