US, China tariff truce holds for now but US says Trump has final say U.S. and Chinese officials met in Stockholm and agreed to seek an extension of their current 90-day tariff truce, aiming to ease tensions in an ongoing trade war that threatens global growth. While no major breakthroughs were reached, discussions were described as constructive, and a decision on extending the truce—set to expire August 12—now rests with President Trump. Talks covered rare earth mineral trade flows, broader economic concerns, and a potential shift in China’s export-driven model. The outcome could pave the way for a future meeting between Trump and President Xi. Meanwhile, Trump recently struck trade deals with the EU and Japan, sparking mixed reactions in Europe, while China maintains a strong negotiating position due to its control over key resources like rare earths. Read More.
Social Security benefits face 24% cut in less than a decade as trust fund dries up, new analysis reveals Social Security’s retirement trust fund is projected to run out by late 2032, triggering an automatic 24% cut to benefits unless action is taken, according to a new analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB). The shortfall stems from a growing gap between Social Security’s expenses and incoming payroll tax revenue, accelerated by recent legislation like the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Cuts would vary depending on income and household type—for example, a medium-income dual-income couple could see an $18,100 annual reduction starting in 2033. Without reform, benefit cuts could exceed 30% by the end of the century. Medicare is also at risk, facing a projected 11% cut in 2033. CRFB warns that lawmakers who refuse to address these issues are effectively endorsing steep benefit reductions for tens of millions of retirees. The root problem lies in the aging population and shrinking worker-to-retiree ratio, which has dropped from 8.6 to 2.8 since 1955. Read More.
Three Red Flags Investors Need to Be Aware Of The recent stock market rally appears dangerously overextended, with the S&P 500 up over 30% in just three months and not touching its 20-day moving average for more than 60 days—a pattern last seen during the Dot Com Bubble. Multiple warning signs now point to an imminent pullback: high-yield credit and market breadth, both early indicators, are starting to decline, and historical patterns show August is typically weak during a president’s second term. Read More.
Brazil to double down on Brics in defiance of Donald Trump
Brazil has pledged to strengthen its ties with the BRICS bloc despite threats from U.S. President Donald Trump, who warned of steep tariffs on nations aligning with the group. In response to Trump’s proposed 50% tariff on Brazil and criticism of President Lula’s government, Lula’s top foreign policy adviser, Celso Amorim, said the attacks only reinforce Brazil’s commitment to BRICS and its desire to diversify international partnerships. Amorim rejected claims of BRICS being ideological and emphasized support for a multilateral global order. He also called on the EU to ratify the stalled Mercosur trade deal and noted growing interest in trade from countries like Canada. Dismissing Trump’s actions as politically motivated interference, Amorim argued the U.S. president is acting without allies or clear national interests—just personal ambitions. Read More.
Trump is quietly changing the Fed, even without firing Powell The Trump administration is pushing major reforms at the Federal Reserve, signaling a broader shakeup of the central bank’s leadership, policies, and workforce. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent criticized the Fed’s effectiveness and hinted at deep institutional changes, especially after Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May 2026. Trump has already elevated Michelle Bowman to lead bank regulation, and under her leadership, the Fed is rolling back post-2008 financial crisis rules to reduce regulatory burdens on big banks—moves welcomed by industry but criticized as risky by former officials. Additionally, the Fed is trimming its 24,000-person workforce by 10%, though Trump officials are demanding steeper cuts and criticizing the bank’s $220 billion in recent losses and perceived overspending. Further downsizing may face internal resistance, but the administration remains committed to reshaping the Fed’s role and influence. Read More.
